Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Successful Stock Picks


BDX - Stable earnings, Consistent 20%+ Return on Equity, Consistent 15%+ Return on Capital, Net Profit Margin in mid-teens, Dividend raiser
2.3% Current Yield, price target of 115-140,
Current price as of 2/28/12 $77.22

Feb 22, 2017 - Barron Magazine - How to Pick Stocks that Will Beat the Market

Buffett favors understandable business with good balance sheets, high return, reasonable valuations and strong market positions (also consider free cash flow growth, good returns on equity/share, strong balance sheet, smart management)
Barron magazine favors stocks with low PE or P/B ratios but also write favorably about growth companies (rapid earnings and revenue growth)
When buying growth companies
 -Not to pay more than 25 to 30 forward earnings a year out.  If you pay more than 25 or 30 times forward earnings even for an excellent company, you are vulnerable to the slightest earnings or revenue disappointment (e.g. UA, COH, UBNT)
 - Be careful about fads (FIT, GPRO) for activity trackers and action cameras.
 - Be wary of fashion oriented companies with high stock market valuations such as KATE, COH, KORS, better to stick with diversified apparel and accessories makes like VFC, LVMH (aligning yourself with successful operating companies that have succeeded even as tastes changed
 - rock bottom values would be less than 75% of book values or 8 times earnings
 - when investing in big banks and insurers, try not to pay a big premium relative to tangible book value.  conservative measure of shareholder equity that excludes goodwill and other intangible assets stemming from acquisitions
 - if you buy solid financial company at tangible book value, it has a good chance of working
 - try not to pay much more than 1.5 times tangible book or 15 times current earnings
 - this strategy can pay off in a big way as these stocks tend to be highly cyclical
 - the price to book guidelines for financials using book value don't apply to asset-light financial companies like Visa and Mastercard which benefit from the steady growth of debit/credit card transactions at the expense of cash.  they trade at much high price to book multiples

 - pharma stocks - try to avoid paying more than 20 times earnings for a drug stock. pharma stock can be tough to assess because of their prospects often hinge on the success of new drugs which can be hard for most investors to analyze

 - dividend plays - avoid companies that pay more than 60 to 70% of earnings, XLU

 - consumer stocks - ko and pg were traded for more than 20 times forward earnings and 3%, compare them with bonds with increasing dividends

 Read 'How to pick stocks like warren buffett: profiting from the bargain hunting strategies of the world's greatest value investor

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